Today the Fed Chairman says that a recession is possible. This is news because Uncle Ben has been the main cheerleader for the printing press industry, and even he is going negative. Here's a checklist of economic indicators and their effect on the likelihood of a recession.
GDP growth-Barely, not statistically significant, not really bad until negative
Inflation-Increasing, very bad
Dollar Value-Decreasing, feeds inflation in an import-based economy, bad
Unemployment-Rising a bit, bad, but we are still at full employment levels
Consumer spending-Down, not necessarily bad because it means personal debt is probably being paid off instead of shopping as much
Things are not going well on the economic side, but it could be worse. When unemployment shoots up, that is the time to be worried. When that happens either the interest rates fly upwards to reduce inflation or government subsidizes hiring of new workers to increase emplyoment. Either situation does not bode well for the economy and leads to social problemms in addition to the economic impact.
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